We could do 450mm Wafer, when the time comes where it make economics sense. That is roughly equivalent or slightly better than Intel's 7nm. The TSMC roadmap and its Grand Alliance as Morris Chang likes to call it, has it all till 3nm. >What's different now is that everything is running out of steam.Īt least not yet until 2nm. (Unfortunately, there's a lot of stuff that just doesn't shrink, period: some analog stuff, all HV I/O cells, and just about all power management.) So the potential upsides aren't universal, but I think there's a big market out there for stuff that can benefit from smaller processes but can't afford the obscene cost of a multipatterning mask set. To some extent we're seeing that now with SOI processes like 22FDX, but I think that trend will continue. I think there's plenty of room for improving cost on older processes to make them more widely deployable. Very few things actually need the latest and greatest digital process: main processors (CPUs, APUs, GPUs) are about it. One under-explored area I think we're going to see a lot more of is backfill of older processes. Some twat sticking a "2nm" label on a 20nm-class process doesn't actually make it any better!) This isn't to say that semiconductors will stop improving, just that it sure won't be classic CMOS any more. (Don't confuse actual nodes with what happens when marketing gets involved. 7nm nodes are in early production now 5nm is on the way 3nm is likely to happen 2nm may or may not depending on the economics 1nm is unlikely but you never know and sub-nm CMOS nodes are probably just not going to happen.
How to program a rough pass on hypermill plus#
Plus reliability is going to hell and costs are out of control.īasically, the stars are aligning to spell the end of traditional CMOS scaling. And all of this exoticism is expensive, so chips just aren't getting cheaper to make like they used to. Even the fundamental structures are getting bizarre: FinFETs got us to ~5nm, but nanosheet or gate-all-around structures are going to be necessary to go further. Materials are getting exotic: the serious discussion around use of ruthenium, which is notoriously difficult to work with at nanoscale, tells you how desperate people are getting. Lithography is getting exponentially more complicated: the cost of a mask set for a 7nm-class process is obscene. What's different now is that everything is running out of steam, not just one component of the process.
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